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Tuesday
Dec092008

Upping the Ante

Last May, I was playing blackjack in a shroud of cigarette smoke at Harrah’s Casino, surrounded by folks who don’t sleep and love a stiff drink.

I’d memorized the strategy charts, and I knew when to hit, stay, and double down. Unfortunately, I didn’t know how to bet.  Every time the table cleared, I’d slide a single green chip into the circle, righteously watching the guy next to me throw away hundreds of dollars worth of black plastic.

Two previous bouts at the Foxwoods Casino in Connecticut had left me overconfident.  Following the rules and placing twenty-five dollar bets, I’d walked away with hundreds in free cash.  Convinced I was good, I had no trouble sitting down at Harrah’s.

My chip stack grew.  I won a few and lost even fewer, generally ignoring the day-shift cocktail waitresses.  An hour in, I was sitting on house money, still placing single green chips in the circle.  The dealer shot me a look, his body language betraying his tight smile.  Clearly, the man thought I was an idiot.  

As a CrossFitter, you have an advantage, and the advantage must be pressed.

“You know, you’ll never win that way.  Keep betting the same, and you’ll walk away with nothin’.  When you’re winning, you’ve gotta up the bet.”

Given the house edge of two percent, he was dead right.  Statistics dictated that my money would hover around an ever-decreasing mean, slowly auguring away.  I might get lucky in the short-term, but I wouldn’t get rich.  Heeding his ill-timed advice, I shoved more plastic into the circle.

In athletic training, the house edge is age.  With every passing day, it marches inexorably onward, taking a silent and consistent toll.  Your intensity, standing in for those little green chips, is the only tool you have to keep it at bay.

As a CrossFitter, you have an advantage, and the advantage must be pressed.  Each time you get to a new level of performance, you’ve got to up the ante and increase your intensity.  Otherwise, you’re sitting next to me, shoving in one chip at a time and wondering why age is getting the best of you.

My day at Harrah’s didn’t end well.  After a couple of fifty-dollar bets went south, I reverted to my old habit, putting a single chip on the table each time.  Laying huge bets was too much for me to bear.   

I left the Casino and walked into the Las Vegas sun, holding with the same amount of cash I started with, no richer for the experience.  My friend with the black chips was still there, plunking down more plastic every time the deck got hot.  I don’t know if he won, but he was playing the right game.

Joe, a CrossFit Central Connecticut athlete, ups the ante at a Level I Certification at CrossFit Montclair. 

Reader Comments (7)

Jon,

I love the sentiment, but your math is wrong. The dealer did you no favor.

Assuming: (1) the House wins 52% of the time; (2) you were making consistent $10 bets; (3) you were up $100, then your expected earnings over the next 100 $10 bets was -$40, a net of $60. By getting you to increase to $25, your expected winnings on the next $100 bets were -$100, bringing you to zero, which is exactly what the dealer was trying to accomplish.

December 9, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterHari

Hari,

You assume too much, none of which is accurate. While I have no desire to do math with you, the expected payoff on each bet is not independent, as certain cards only come up a certain number of times. We were playing with a six-deck, non-recycling shoe. Therefore, the odds shift toward the player when there are more high cards in the deck and toward the dealer when there are fewer. The dealers point, fully accurate, was that when those odds shift, it pays to bet big, because they will not stay shifted.

Best,

Jon

December 9, 2008 | Registered CommenterJon Gilson

Jon,

I agree that the relative balance between the player and the House shifts depending on the changing composition of the deck, and if that had been what you were measuring, I would agree with your strategy of increasing your bets. However, a recent streak of above-average wins does not imply a favorable composition of the remaining cards; in fact it is more likely the opposite.

As an illustration, suppose you were playing a trivial game where you were dealt a single card and "won" whenever you were dealt a face card. We agree that your odds of winning are 3/13 on the first hand of a fresh deck. Suppose you started playing with a 6-deck non recycled shoe. If you were to win 36 of the first 104 hands, would you increase or decease your next bet?

December 9, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterHari

Jon,

The dealer and you are absolutely correct. I dealt cards at Foxwoods for years before getting into CF. The same phenomenon happens in Roulette, another game with similar statistics to Blackjack if you're playing just colors. Good article.

December 9, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterRandy T.

Jon, I get your point. I'm a devoted CrossFitter who will be 39 next April. I need all the insight I can get.

Thanks!
Mike

December 10, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterMike

hey john it's joe the crossfitcentralct athlete who was upping the ante in montclair. First thank you for the technique and theory that you brought to the certification i am using it when i train other athletes as well as when i explain what crossfit is to people who are scared to dive in. Also thank you for the intensity during the amrap 7 med ball cleans and 7 pushups, you should come down to crossfticentralct and motivate some people, we are moving to a nice big new home total square feet 3,000 for crossfit 12,500 for martial arts and mma training. also thank you for making me famous your check will be in the mail. joey carta cfcct

December 11, 2008 | Unregistered Commenterjoey carta

Hey I just found this blog as it was recommended at gymjunkies.com - I'll definitely be coming back soon - and I must say, I've never seen a blackjack/training analogy on a blog yet, so nice work!

December 14, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterSuper-Trainer

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